Earnings deep dives, business breakdowns, balance sheets and governance changes for the public companies I follow. Numbers come straight from SEC filings; this is research, not investment advice.https://alphasense.cc/en© 2026 Frank · Private researchhttps://alphasense.cc/research/popmart/https://alphasense.cc/research/popmart/Pop Mart FY2025 revenue ¥37.1B (+184.7%), net income ¥13.0B (+293.3%), gross margin 72.1%. THE MONSTERS / LABUBU broke ¥10B as a single IP (38.1% of total, up from 23% in 2024). Americas +748%, overseas mix ~44%. The stock fell 22% the day after the annual report — the core debate is the IP-factory narrative versus rising single-IP concentration. Back to the Moutai analogy — the data confirms IP-cycle risk; the "default answer for parent-child relationships" framing has no data behind it yet.Fri, 01 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTEarnings · POPMARThttps://alphasense.cc/research/reddit/https://alphasense.cc/research/reddit/Q1 2026 revenue $663.4M (+69.1%), net income $204.0M (+680% YoY), adjusted EBITDA margin 40.1% (record); DAU 126.8M (+17%), advertising re-accelerating.Fri, 01 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTEarnings · RDDThttps://alphasense.cc/research/china-policy/https://alphasense.cc/research/china-policy/Six dimensions of systemic risk (demographics, property, local debt, deflation, external pressure, social mood) frame the policy response. Reference paths — Japan 1990s balance-sheet recession, the Korean developmental state, Singapore's housing-as-utility model, and the Soviet collapse anti-pattern. We map sacrificed vs. favored cohorts across groups, regions, and industries, then translate this into A-share, H-share, indirect overseas, and tail-hedge investment buckets. Taiwan, a leftward policy turn, and the US escalation path are the three largest under-priced tail risks.Fri, 01 May 2026 00:00:00 GMTResearch · CHINAhttps://alphasense.cc/research/ai-social/https://alphasense.cc/research/ai-social/Platform-by-platform map of what generative AI is doing to social media — sourced numbers, attitude scoreboard across Meta, YouTube, TikTok, X, Reddit, Snap, Pinterest, LinkedIn, Bluesky, WeChat, Xiaohongshu, Douyin, Character.ai and Replika. Three shifts (consumers, producers, distribution), five cluster modes, three forward scenarios.Tue, 28 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTResearch · AI·SOCIALhttps://alphasense.cc/signals/nvda-moat/https://alphasense.cc/signals/nvda-moat/A contrarian thesis on NVIDIA. Transformer convergence routes around the CUDA moat rather than breaking it; train/inference compute mix shifts 2:1 → 1:1 → 1:4 by 2029. Training fortress holds; inference is exposed — Google TPU offers ~4.7× perf/$ and 67% lower energy on inference, and Anthropic / Meta / Midjourney have already migrated some workloads. Cerebras / Groq / D-Matrix / SambaNova / Taalas have raised $8.3B in 2026. The real signal isn't market share — it's non-GAAP gross margin: tier-1 alarm 70%, tier-2 65%, tier-3 a clear-out.Sun, 26 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTSignals · NVDA-MOAThttps://alphasense.cc/signals/apple-ai/https://alphasense.cc/signals/apple-ai/A contrarian thesis on Apple's position in the AI stack. Apple pays Google ~$1B/yr for Gemini in Siri; Google still pays Apple ~$20B/yr for default Safari search — a 20:1 reverse cash flow. Mac mini / Mac Studio is the only consumer hardware running 70B local inference. 2026 capex $14B vs hyperscalers' combined $660-690B. Smart glasses 2027 launch versus Meta Ray-Ban's 7M units sold.Sat, 25 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTSignals · APPLE-AIhttps://alphasense.cc/research/china-supermarket/https://alphasense.cc/research/china-supermarket/A rare 2025 split in offline grocery in China: hypermarkets keep closing, membership clubs scale fast, new-retail turns its first profitable year in a decade, and a domestic player learns Pang Donglai-style self-rescue. Walmart hypermarkets ~283; Sam's Club $14B+ (10.7M paying members); Hema FY25 GMV ~$10.5B with first adjusted EBITA positive; Yonghui completes 222 Pang Donglai-style remodels and closes 381 stores. Sam's does ¥22B per store vs Yonghui's ¥850M — a 25× gap. Three viable paths: membership filter, store-warehouse + private label, curation × service.Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTResearch · SUPERhttps://alphasense.cc/research/datacenter/https://alphasense.cc/research/datacenter/The AI infrastructure supply chain laid out upstream → downstream: ① upstream silicon (NVDA FY26 DC $112B, AMD $16.6B, Broadcom AI $20B, TSMC CoWoS doubling to 75K wafers/mo, HBM TAM $35B); ② upstream networking (Arista AI back-end $1.5B, Marvell optical DSP 80%+, 800G $12B market); ③ midstream servers (SMCI $22B, Dell ISG AI $24.6B, Foxconn NT$8.1T, Wistron +194.6%, Wiwynn +148.9%); ④ midstream power & cooling (Vertiv $13.75B + $9.5B backlog, Schneider DC ~€12B, liquid cooling $5-7B); ⑤ midstream colo (EQIX $9.22B + 3GW, DLR $6.11B + 5GW powered land, US primary vacancy 1.6%); ⑥ downstream (AWS $117B, Azure $75B, OpenAI $25B, Anthropic $22-30B ARR); ⑦ power (US DC 9-12% of national load by 2030, Microsoft+CEG TMI, Amazon+Talen 1.92GW, Google+Kairos 500MW, Meta 6.6GW); ⑧ US-China competition (Huawei 910C + Cambricon, ≥30% domestic share). 10 chapters · 80+ data points.Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTResearch · DChttps://alphasense.cc/research/nuclear/https://alphasense.cc/research/nuclear/Nuclear power supply chain: upstream / midstream / downstream + AI PPAs. ① 2,670 TWh global generation (+2.8% YoY), 417 reactors, 9% of electricity, IAEA 2050 high-case 992 GWe. ② Uranium mining (60kt capacity vs 80kt demand, Kazatomprom 39%, Cameco 24%, Cigar Lake 16.9 Mlb, 2026-Q1 spot $101.41 / long-term $90; SPUT/URNM/YCA vehicles). ③ Conversion + enrichment (Rosatom + CNNC ≥60% of global SWU; HALEU via Centrus / DOE). ④ Reactors (Westinghouse-Brookfield-Cameco $80B, Flamanville 3 €23.7B, Hualong One 41 units, APR1400). ⑤ SMRs (NuScale NRC, Oklo $10B, BWXT, TerraPower / Kairos / X-Energy). ⑥ Operators (CEG $95B + 32GW, VST + Talen + EDF + KEPCO). ⑦ AI PPA timeline (Microsoft+CEG / Amazon+Talen / Google+Kairos / Meta 6.6GW). ⑧ Lazard LCOE comparison. ⑨ Five 2026-2030 catalyst dates. 10 chapters · 80+ data points.Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTResearch · NUCLEARhttps://alphasense.cc/resources/crypto/https://alphasense.cc/resources/crypto/A 24/7 market, mapped end to end. Market structure (CEX vs DEX vs OTC), five asset classes (BTC / ETH / Stablecoin / Alt / Memecoin), perpetual futures + funding-rate mechanics, on-chain data (MVRV / NVT / SOPR / Exchange Flow), the three DeFi yield families (AMM / Lending / Restaking), MEV with searcher / builder roles, ten core strategies, and six crypto-native risks — FTX / LUNA / Mt. Gox lessons. 11 chapters · 90+ terms.Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTReading guides · CRYPTOhttps://alphasense.cc/resources/volatility/https://alphasense.cc/resources/volatility/Trading vol is not trading direction. This guide walks the volatility universe — core concepts, pricing mechanics, the five Greeks, the VIX product family, sell-vol / buy-vol playbooks, variance swap and dispersion advanced trades, and ten classic traps. Covers RV vs IV, the volatility risk premium (VRP), skew and term structure, Long Vol / Tail Risk (Universa / Spitznagel), and the VXX long-hold trap retail keeps falling into. 11 chapters · 80+ terms.Thu, 23 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTReading guides · VOLhttps://alphasense.cc/resources/commodity-primer/https://alphasense.cc/resources/commodity-primer/From a barrel of oil to a lot of copper: pricing mechanics, futures structure, contango / backwardation, the seven driver factors, ten major commodities, six investment vehicles (futures / mini / ETF / physical / equities / miners), gold/copper, gold/silver and gold/oil ratio signals, plus classic traps like USO roll cost and leveraged-ETF decay. Read alongside the /commodities super-cycle page. 11 chapters · 70+ terms.Wed, 22 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTReading guides · CMDTYhttps://alphasense.cc/resources/forex/https://alphasense.cc/resources/forex/The FX market is the largest, deepest, longest-trading market in the world — $7.5T daily turnover. This primer covers structure, currency pairs, quoting and spreads, product types, pricing drivers, the major data calendar, leverage / margin mechanics, the four core strategies (carry / trend / mean reversion / event), the eight major currencies, and ten classic traps. 11 chapters · 90+ terms.Wed, 22 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTReading guides · FXhttps://alphasense.cc/resources/kelly/https://alphasense.cc/resources/kelly/Direction gives you expected value; sizing gives you compounding. This primer collects 12 position-sizing formulas: Kelly / Half / Quarter Kelly + expected value + risk of ruin + Sharpe / Sortino / Calmar + volatility targeting + Markowitz mean-variance + Bridgewater All Weather risk parity + CPPI / Optimal F. Includes a worked example for a $100K + Sharpe 1.0 strategy. 11 chapters · 12 formulas.Wed, 22 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTReading guides · KELLYhttps://alphasense.cc/resources/quant-schools/https://alphasense.cc/resources/quant-schools/A taxonomy of eight quant trading schools: HFT market making (Citadel Securities · Virtu · Jane Street), StatArb (Renaissance · DE Shaw · Two Sigma), CTA trend (Man AHL · Winton · DUNN), systematic macro (Bridgewater · AQR), factor investing (AQR · DFA), machine learning, event-driven, and crypto quant. Includes market share, holding periods, hardware / data / staffing comparisons, and "what should a two-person team with $100K start with" matching guidance. 11 chapters · 40+ firms.Wed, 22 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTReading guides · QUANThttps://alphasense.cc/resources/valuation/https://alphasense.cc/resources/valuation/Starting from Damodaran's "every valuation is wrong," this primer organizes the five method families (DCF · Relative · DDM · Asset · SOTP), WACC, terminal value, startup valuation, a 4-8 hour practical workflow, and 15 classic pitfalls. Includes WACC reference tables for major sectors and a sensitivity-matrix template. 11 chapters · 50+ terms.Wed, 22 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTReading guides · VALUATIONhttps://alphasense.cc/research/aapl/https://alphasense.cc/research/aapl/FY2025 revenue $416.2B (+6.4%), net income $112.0B (+19.5%); Services tops $109B for the first time; gross margin to 46.9%. Q1 FY2026 +15.7% on Apple Intelligence + iPhone 17, Greater China rebounding +38%. Annual shareholder return hits a record $106B.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTEarnings · AAPLhttps://alphasense.cc/research/crcl/https://alphasense.cc/research/crcl/First public year as the dominant stablecoin issuer: USDC float $75.3B (+72%) drives revenue +63.9% to $2.75B — but 96% comes from reserve interest and 60% flows to Coinbase distribution. GAAP loss of $69.5M reflects a one-off $424M IPO SBC charge. Each 100bp rate cut is a -$387M net hit.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTEarnings · CRCLhttps://alphasense.cc/research/googl/https://alphasense.cc/research/googl/Alphabet FY2025 revenue $402.8B (+15%), net income $132.2B (+32%); Google Cloud op-margin from 14% to 23.7%; capex jumps to $91.4B (+74%) while FCF holds flat at $73.3B.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTEarnings · GOOGLhttps://alphasense.cc/research/meta/https://alphasense.cc/research/meta/Revenue $200.97B (+22.2%), op income $83.28B (margin 41.4%); capex doubles to $69.7B; Reality Labs loss widens to $(19.2B); Q3 takes a $15.9B OBBBA tax-reform hit, dragging FY net income -3%.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTEarnings · METAhttps://alphasense.cc/research/net/https://alphasense.cc/research/net/FY2025 revenue $2.17B (+30%), large customers (>$100K ARR) +23% to 4,298, DBNR up from 111% to 120%. $4.1B liquidity, but $3.29B of zero-coupon converts on the balance sheet — $1.29B refinancing wall in May 2026.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTEarnings · NEThttps://alphasense.cc/research/nvda/https://alphasense.cc/research/nvda/FY2026 revenue $215.9B (+65.5%), net income $120.1B (+64.7%); Data Center alone is 89.7% and four CSPs combine for 61% of quarterly revenue. Q1 took a $4.5B H20 impairment; China share fell to 9.1%. Inventory jumped from $10B to $21B for Blackwell.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTEarnings · NVDAhttps://alphasense.cc/research/pltr/https://alphasense.cc/research/pltr/Revenue $4.48B (+56%); US commercial +109% becomes the lead growth engine; GAAP net income $1.63B; adjusted op-margin 50%; Rule of 40 hits 106. Triple-class A/B/F stock structure locks 49.999% voting power with the founders via Class F.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTEarnings · PLTRhttps://alphasense.cc/research/tcom/https://alphasense.cc/research/tcom/Trip.com Group FY2025 net revenue ¥62.4B (+17%), adjusted EBITDA ¥18.9B; outbound recovers to 140% of 2019 baseline; Trip.com international keeps compounding. The largest near-term overhang is the SAMR antitrust review opened in Q1 2026.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTEarnings · TCOMhttps://alphasense.cc/research/tsla/https://alphasense.cc/research/tsla/FY25 revenue $94.83B (-2.9%), net income $3.79B (-46.5%). Auto core gross margin sticks at 15.4% for a second year; regulatory credits collapse 28%. Offsets: storage gross margin spikes to 29.8%, deployments double to 46.7 GWh. Musk re-signs ~424M-share CEO Performance Award.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTEarnings · TSLAhttps://alphasense.cc/research/commodities/https://alphasense.cc/research/commodities/110 years of commodity history, five super-cycles (WWI / postwar reconstruction / oil shocks / China cycle / green transition); we sit mid-way through the fifth. Includes a snapshot of 18 commodities, three cycle signals (gold/copper, gold/silver, gold/oil), seven driver factors, and three forward scenarios.Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTResearch · COMMODITIEShttps://alphasense.cc/research/ev/https://alphasense.cc/research/ev/2025 global EV sales 20.7M (+20%); China alone is 68%; penetration rises to ~24%. BYD takes 2.26M BEVs and overtakes Tesla's 1.64M — a leadership change. LFP global share crosses NMC at ~52%; pack ASP falls to $108/kWh. After OBBBA ended the $7,500 US credit, Q4 US penetration collapsed to 5.8%.Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTResearch · EVhttps://alphasense.cc/research/macro/https://alphasense.cc/research/macro/WTI, Brent, gold, DXY and the 10Y placed on the same timeline from 2025-04 to 2026-04. Oil traces a V; gold a straight line. The pricing regime shifted from supply/demand to "real rates × geopolitical premium." Includes monthly tables, four price charts, and three forward scenarios.Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTResearch · MACROhttps://alphasense.cc/research/smartphones/https://alphasense.cc/research/smartphones/Two years (2024 → 2026) where global smartphone volumes barely moved while ASPs rose: 2025 shipments 1.25B (+2%), ASP $370, Q4 first crosses $400. Apple takes the annual #1 for the first time in 14 years; Huawei retakes China #1; foldables reach 19.83M waiting on Apple's 2026 entry. Includes IDC / Canalys / Counterpoint reconciliation.Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTResearch · SMARTPHONEShttps://alphasense.cc/resources/primer/https://alphasense.cc/resources/primer/From the four statements to DAU / FCF / Rule of 40 — the structure, terminology, key metrics, and common traps in US earnings filings, organized as a primer you can return to. Each concept is grounded with concrete numbers from Reddit (RDDT). 11 chapters · 80+ terms.Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:00:00 GMTReading guides · PRIMERhttps://alphasense.cc/research/consumer-hardware/https://alphasense.cc/research/consumer-hardware/From DJI to Bambu Lab to Hypershell — a path that compresses industrial-grade equipment by 2-3 orders of magnitude into out-of-the-box consumer goods. Drones ¥100K → ¥3K, CNC ¥500K → ¥8K, Boston Dynamics Spot $75K → Unitree Go2 $1,600, military exoskeletons $80K → Hypershell $799. The shared formula: prior-gen hardware team + Shenzhen / Yangtze Delta supply chain + overseas first / China second + vertical integration + software is half the product + brand = category. Three-year arc to $1B+ revenue and ~30% global share.Fri, 27 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMTResearch · HARDWARE